Goldman hikes oil-price forecasts on ‘substantial’ supply risks

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. increased its oil-price forecasts for the year-end and 2027 due to elevated risks to supplies, joining other banks as they adjusted their outlooks following months of conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude is now estimated at $105 a barrel in December, up from a previous estimate of $90, and will average $88 next year, which is 10 per cent higher than before, according to analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby.

The forecast increase also applied to the US oil marker West Texas Intermediate. The analysts emphasized that substantial downside supply risks are likely to maintain a significant risk premium in the near term. They noted that markets are placing increasing weight on escalation concerns after the Nov. 3 US midterms and the potential weakness in Mideast supply.

Brent's price surged 14 per cent in October, reaching a six-month high, despite Middle East crude supplies rebounding close to pre-war levels. The price increase was driven by concerns over the possibility of renewed hostilities between the US and Iran after the midterm elections, with President Donald Trump hinting at a possible resumption of airstrikes.

Iran's Supreme Leader ordered top commanders to prepare for a renewed confrontation. Factors such as intensified shipping attacks and infrastructure damage could trigger further price gains, the analysts added, while highlighting the risks from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The analysts suggested including a 1-million-barrel-per-day global supply disruption allowance in 2027 in their base case due to the unpredictable timing and location of disruptions.

Morgan Stanley and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. also recently increased their forecasts for Dated Brent to $105 a barrel for the fourth quarter.