China's top three airlines head for full-year losses as fuel costs weigh

China's three largest airlines face full-year losses as soaring jet fuel costs, weak domestic fares, and typhoon disruptions hit their traditionally profitable third-quarter period. Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern are all forecasted to post annual net losses, according to LSEG analyst estimates. Air China's third-quarter net profit plunged 92.6% to 270.6 million yuan, while China Eastern's profit dropped 98.2% to 64 million yuan.

China Southern saw a third-quarter net loss of 609 million yuan, after making a profit of 3.84 billion yuan last year. The airlines reported losses for the first nine months of the year, a period that typically brings strong profits. The third quarter, which includes the peak summer travel season, is usually the strongest for Chinese airlines and provided a high base for year-on-year comparisons.

However, the steep rise in jet fuel prices, which have more than doubled since February's U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran, has negatively impacted their results. Chinese airlines typically hedge less of their fuel than many Asian and European peers, leaving them more exposed to oil price fluctuations. Domestic fares were also weak during the quarter due to intense competition, including from high-speed rail.

Huatai Securities estimated that Air China's yields, a proxy for airfares, fell 5% during the period, making it unable to offset higher fuel costs. Analysts predict that Chinese airlines will remain in net loss during the typically weaker fourth quarter due to the impact of surging jet fuel prices. Nathan Gee, head of Asia-Pacific transport research at BofA Global Research, noted that third-quarter earnings were slightly better than "very low expectations" given the "big headwind" of rising fuel costs and soft consumption demand. Shares of the three airlines have dropped 38%, 46%, and 39%, respectively, this year.