Cervical cancer cases and deaths forecast to rise
Global cervical cancer cases and deaths could rise by 20.2% and 39.3%, respectively, by 2050, according to a modeling study published in Nature Medicine. The findings suggest that the burden of cervical cancer will remain unevenly distributed, with the highest incidence and mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa.
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study has projected a 20.2% increase in cervical cancer cases and a 39.3% rise in deaths worldwide by 2050, according to a study published in Nature Medicine. Researchers Natalie Pritchett, Lisa Force and their colleagues analyzed cervical cancer data from 1990 to 2023 across 204 countries and territories, using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases study.
In 2023, there were 887,000 new cases and 369,000 deaths, with the lowest incidence and mortality rates in high-income countries compared to low-income countries. By 2050, annual cases are forecast to reach 1.08 million, a 20.2% increase from 2024 levels, while deaths are projected to rise by 39.3% to 522,000. The study found that sub-Saharan Africa would bear the highest incidence and mortality rates, with an estimated 206,000 deaths in 2050, an 88.7% increase in cases and a 95.4% increase in deaths compared to 2024.
Despite cervical cancer being largely preventable through vaccination, screening, and treatment, access to these measures remains uneven worldwide. The study highlights the need for greater access to these preventive measures, especially in low- and middle-income countries, to combat the disease. However, the forecasts are limited by data gaps and do not account for potential future impacts of HPV vaccination programs.
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