Canavan's seat switch might backfire, but does he have a better option?

Matt Canavan's decision to contest the lower house seat of Capricornia in the next federal election is a bold move, potentially exposing him to significant risk. Capricornia, where Canavan resides, is a prime target for One Nation, who recorded their third-highest primary vote in the area in the 2025 election. National polling suggests One Nation support in Capricornia could be well over 30%, and possibly as high as 40%.

This makes Capricornia a seat with a high probability of being won by One Nation if the election were held today. The mining sector forms a major part of Capricornia's economy, and Canavan has sought to align himself with this industry. The outgoing MP, Michelle Landry, has held the seat since 2013, but the region has a history of Labor members before her.

Given the threats posed by One Nation, it makes sense for the Nationals to field a high-profile and known candidate in Capricornia. Despite the Nationals' recent struggles in the polls, Canavan's decision to run for the seat could be his best chance to revive the party's fortunes. If Canavan loses, he'll at least have tried, and his odds of staying in parliament may have been better had he opted to run for the Senate for another term.

If the Nationals fail to curb One Nation's threat, their influence could be significantly diminished, with potential electoral consequences not just at the lower house level, but also at the Senate level.