Australian Dollar: RBA hike mostly priced, risks of disappointment – DBS
Philip Wee at DBS Group Research notes that AUD has largely priced in a 25-bps RBA hike to 4.85% at the November meeting, following an acceleration in CPI inflation. He warns that the RBA could still disappoint by pausing or signalling a near-peak in rates, with downgraded GDP and higher inflation forecasts highlighting a difficult policy trade-off and a tentative AUD/USD recovery.
On Tuesday, November 3, the US Dollar (USD) experienced a decline amidst the anticipation of the US mid-term elections and the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision. The USD Index (DXY) dropped to 101.72, marking a 0.24% decrease from the previous value. The US Dollar (USD) was notably resilient against the Australian Dollar, with the USD/AUD pair trading at 0.7000, reflecting investor confidence in the Australian economy.
The EUR/USD pair saw a modest gain of 0.33%, settling below the 1.1200 mark, despite strong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from Spain and Germany. However, Italy's PMI contracted, underscoring the mixed performance across European economies. The British Pound (GBP) hovered around 1.3400, with USD/GBP reaching a high of 1.3448, but buying pressure faltered as the market awaited the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision.
USD/JPY showed limited movement, oscillating around the 157.00 level following Japan's dovish policy stance. The pair's trajectory was tempered by expectations of a rate hike in December. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) awaited the release of October's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could influence its monetary policy stance. Expectations suggested a 25 basis point rate hike, aligning with market forecasts.
Gold (XAU/USD) benefited from the USD's weakness, showing a strong upward trend to reach $3,964 per troy ounce, driven by positive correlations with oil prices. The overall market sentiment remained bearish, but a potential reversal was anticipated if the USD retraced to the $4,000 level, bolstered by falling interest rates and a recovering market structure.
Written by urgent.news from FXStreet's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
This story
This is one outlet's version. Read the fullest account.
