Absage an Roms Dirigismus: Der Markt ordnet Italiens Bankenwelt neu

Italian bank Monte dei Paschi has approved a takeover by Intesa Sanpaolo, with the main objective being the insurance giant Generali. Carlo Messina, CEO of Banca Intesa, had previously shown reluctance towards consolidating the Italian banking sector, calling it reminiscent of the Wild West. In July 2025, Messina changed his stance, stating that banks in Italy had lost their way.

The takeover fever was far from abating, but Intesa CEO Messina has now taken the initiative himself. In June, Intesa presented a hostile takeover offer for Monte dei Paschi, valued at 31.4 billion euros for the oldest bank in the world. The defense against a takeover, led by MPS CEO Luigi Lovaglio, collapsed as the shareholders rejected it.

If the takeover offer from Banca Intesa succeeds, it would create the second-largest bank group in the Eurozone. This marks a significant milestone in the restructuring of Italy's banking landscape. Since 2020, a series of surprising transactions have been occurring, often involving Monte dei Paschi. The bank had been regarded as a troubled financial institution in Europe, with bad loans, fraud scandals, and ultimately saved by the state in 2017.

However, Monte dei Paschi recently merged with the larger Milanese business bank Mediobanca, a symbol of Italian high finance, without government support. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni aimed to expand her influence in the financial sector. For two years, Rome promoted the emergence of a third banking pole behind Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit.

But in June, Messina upended the political script for the new power distribution. Recently, he has now rallied Monte dei Paschi shareholders to his side, with 90% of the votes against Lovaglio's defense strategy. Lovaglio had submitted a counteroffer to acquire Banco BPM for 25 billion euros and Generali for 8.7 billion euros. However, the planned merger with investment bank Mediobanca, which MPS has controlled since last year, was blocked by shareholders.

With the approval of the European Central Bank, Banca Intesa's takeover offer is now official. The market has given a crushing rejection to Rome's economic dirigisme. The takeover battle is now shifting to the stock exchange. The takeover is expected to be submitted by Intesa in the second half of November. Messina's interest primarily lies in Mediobanca, Italy's leading investment bank.

The bank's largest asset is its 13% stake in the Trieste insurance group Generali. After the takeover, Mediobanca will be integrated directly into the Intesa group to strengthen its position in lucrative investment banking. Intesa CEO Messina has instead targeted Monte dei Paschi, which sits in the medieval castle Rocca Salimbeni.

Half of the MPS branches - 635 locations - will be handed over to the insurance company Unipol, which will then transfer them to its subsidiary BPER in Modena. This acquisition aims to make the takeover compliant with competition law. Clearance from competition authorities is expected by the end of November. The Italian financial world is not likely to find peace after this takeover.

In the past two years, bank power struggles have almost always been driven by a common goal: acquiring the largest insurance company in the country, Assicurazioni Generali in Trieste. Messina has now focused more on Trieste than on Monte dei Paschi in Siena. So far, Banca Intesa holds a 3.1% stake in Generali. If the Italian giant acquires Mediobanca's shareholding, it would become the largest shareholder with 16.5%.

This move would pit Messina against his Italian rival Unicredit, as well as the two influential Generali shareholders: the Del Vecchio family's financial holding Delfin and Roman construction magnate Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone. Intesa and Monte dei Paschi are competing for the oldest bank in the world, Monte dei Paschi di Siena. A new European banking giant could emerge from this.