2026 set to be the world’s second-hottest year on record as El Niño drives August to an all-time high
The world has been hotter in the first ten months of 2026 than in any other year on record except 2024, a JoyNews Research analysis of global temperature data shows.
The first ten months of 2026 have been the hottest on record, surpassing the previous warmest year, 2024, by a small yet significant margin of 0.64°C. This figure indicates a rise in global average temperature, affecting every continent and ocean. Although it may seem small, such a temperature anomaly signifies a substantial amount of excess heat accumulated across the planet, leading to hotter days, intensified rainfall, and prolonged dry periods.
Initially, 2026 did not seem poised to break records, as temperatures during its first four months were only marginally above average. However, a sharp shift occurred, with May and June recording the second-warmest conditions ever observed. The turning point arrived with the onset of El Niño, a natural oceanic phenomenon that raises global temperatures by releasing heat from the Pacific Ocean near the equator.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the presence of El Niño on October 8, with a temperature index 2.1°C above normal, indicating an 83% probability of a strong to very strong event extending into 2027.
August 2026 proved to be the hottest month ever recorded, with temperatures 0.84°C above the 1991–2020 average, surpassing the previous record of 2024 by a significant 0.13°C. This margin is considerable for a global average, and August's mean temperature of 16.96°C equaled July 2023's record as the hottest month globally. September was the second-warmest September on record, while October was only 0.01°C warmer than the same period in previous years.
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