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Are LLMs good or bad Bayesians?

Bryan Caplan: It seems like you and other AIs are bad Bayesians. When presented with counterevidence, you should move toward or against the presenter with roughly equal probability.

  • Caplan argues LLMs exhibit poor Bayesian reasoning.
  • ChatGPT either adjusts position or fails to change with counterarguments.
  • Updates should occur under suitable calibration assumptions, Caplan claims.

Multi-Turn Jailbreaks Against AI Agents With Tool Access

Originally published on robatdasorvi.com The defense against a multi-turn jailbreak on an AI agent is to stop the tool call, not the conversation.

  • Multi-turn jailbreaks bypass AI guardrails by spreading attacks over several turns.
  • Refusal occurs within model, while tool call happens outside model's scope.
  • Prevent by enforcing permission check in code at tool boundary, outside model's influence.

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