Recession in France?

The French Business Cycle Dating Committee (CDCEF) of the French Economic Association (AFSE) has released a statement regarding the country's economic performance for the third quarter of 2026. The quarterly growth rate of French GDP, released by the National Statistical Institute (Insee), stands at −0.1%, following a contraction of 0.2% in the first quarter and stagnation in the second quarter.

While some economic commentators suggest this sequence of figures may imply a "technical recession" in the French economy over the first three quarters of 2026, the CDCEF urges caution before declaring an economic recession. The CDCEF emphasizes that a recession cannot be reduced to observing two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and instead requires a joint evaluation of three dimensions: duration, depth, and diffusion of the decline in economic activity.

At present, the depth of the decline in GDP since the fourth quarter of 2025 remains relatively limited, and the diffusion of the weakness is not widespread, with total employment stable and investment by non-financial corporations plateaued. Therefore, at this stage, the CDCEF considers that the evidence required to identify a recession in the French economy is not present.

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