Opec+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027

Opec+ oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, maintained their December oil output targets unchanged on Sunday, signaling that further policy changes will not happen until next year. The group, grappling with export disruptions stemming from the Iran war, made the decision during an online meeting, according to Opec's statement. Despite Gulf members ramping up exports impacted by the conflict, most are still pumping output well below their targets.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, such as Russia, constitute Opec+, which has been the only entity involved in monthly output decisions for recent years. The upcoming November 29 ministerial meeting is expected to see Opec+ determine the 2027 production quotas.

Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, pointed out that while the decision made on Sunday was relatively straightforward, the more critical test lies in the November 29 meeting. This meeting will determine the 2027 production framework, which analysts consider extremely challenging. Factors such as the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran war, the pace of recovery at the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential surplus from returning disrupted barrels all contribute to the complexity of the upcoming decision.

Currently, the seven core members have been increasing output targets throughout 2026 and completed a phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrel-per-day supply cut in September, as agreed in 2023. Earlier meetings saw the targets kept steady for October and November. Opec+ still holds another layer of production cuts of around 2 million barrels per day through the end of 2026.

The group must complete a review of member production capacity during the fourth quarter before setting the 2027 baselines that will shape future quotas and the plans to unwind those cuts. The Iran war's disruption of capacity expansion projects across the Middle East has introduced uncertainty into future production potential estimates, as reported by Reuters in October.