Opec+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027

Opec+ oil-producing nations have maintained December production targets unchanged, signaling that further adjustments will likely wait until next year. The decision came during a virtual meeting on Sunday, with seven core members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — confirming expectations. The group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, has struggled with export disruptions due to the Iran war.

While Gulf members have been increasing exports affected by the conflict, most are still producing well below their targets.

The statement from Opec highlighted that the easy decision has been made for December, but the real challenge lies in the upcoming November 29 ministerial meeting, where the group will set the production framework for 2027. Analyst Jorge Leon of Rystad emphasized that this decision will be crucial, given the immense uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, the pace of recovery through the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential surplus of barrels once disruptions end.

Opec+ had gradually increased output targets throughout 2026 and completed a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut, first agreed in 2023, in September. Their actions have been steady, with targets unchanged for October and November. The group still maintains a supplementary 2 million bpd cut affecting most members until the end of 2026.

Before finalizing 2027 production baselines, Opec+ must conduct a complete review of members' production capacity during the fourth quarter, a process expected to conclude by mid-November.