Opec+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027

Opec+ maintained December oil output targets on Sunday (Nov 1), reaffirming the expectation that adjustments will not be made until 2027 amid ongoing export disruptions from the Iran war. The seven core members – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman – agreed to this during an online meeting, according to Opec.

While Gulf members have been increasing exports that have been hampered by the conflict, many continue to produce below their targets. Opec+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia. Only these seven members, along with the United Arab Emirates until it left Opec in May, participate in monthly output decisions.

The next meeting is scheduled for Nov 29, where analysts anticipate a decision on 2027 quotas. "Today's decision was the easy one," noted Rystad analyst Jorge Leon. "The much more significant challenge lies at the Nov 29 ministerial meeting, when Opec+ will determine its 2027 production framework." The group's recent focus has been on gradually increasing output targets throughout 2026, with a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day (bpd) supply cut initiated in 2023.

They have kept the targets unchanged for October and November. Despite this, Opec+ retains an additional layer of production cuts of around two million bpd covering most members until the end of 2026. The group must complete a review of members' production capacity during the fourth quarter before establishing the 2027 baselines that will influence future quotas and plans to phase out these cuts, according to sources.

The Iran war has disrupted capacity expansion projects across the Middle East, leading to uncertainty in future production estimates, as reported by Reuters in October.