MTL, super El Nino: Malaysia faces flood and drought risks

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 1 — Malaysia is bracing for a double whammy of weather challenges in the coming months. First, heavy rain and flood risks are expected to plague the Northeast Monsoon (MTL) throughout the Northeast Monsoon, which began on October 27 and is slated to continue until March 2027. The monsoon is forecast to bring three to five episodes of continuous heavy rain, particularly from November to January, raising the risk of flooding, especially in low-lying areas and near rivers.

Flash floods have already disrupted traffic and daily life in the capital city and have been reported in states such as Perak, Kedah, and Negeri Sembilan, signaling weather risks that need close monitoring throughout the monsoon season.

However, the threat does not end there. The arrival of the Super El Nino phenomenon is poised to usher in hotter and drier weather starting late January, which could increase the risk of drought, water shortages, and negatively impact the agricultural sector. Climatology expert Professor Emeritus Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah explained that the MTL typically has two main phases, with heavy rain concentrated on the East Coast states such as Kelantan, Terengganu, and the northern part of Kedah between November and December.

Afterwards, the monsoon trough and surge bring strong winds, shifting the rain south to Johor and Sarawak in January and February.

Azizan anticipates that the number of monsoon surges could decrease from the usual seven to eight to around five to six episodes, potentially reducing the risk of large waves, coastal erosion, and sea level rise in coastal areas facing the South China Sea. However, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia climatology and climate change expert Prof Emeritus Fredolin Tangang cautions that reduced average rainfall due to El Nino does not guarantee Malaysia will escape flooding.

Extreme weather events can still occur, and authorities must remain vigilant and prepared. The Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) predicts that the Super El Nino could bring maximum temperatures exceeding 41 degrees Celsius between late January and March. While the rainy weather from the MTL in southern Sumatra and Kalimantan is expected to help mitigate the risk of forest and peatland fires contributing to cross-border haze, drier conditions in northern Borneo could increase the risk of fires until April or May 2027.

Reduced rainfall could also strain water resources, particularly the dams that supply water for domestic and agricultural use, especially in the northern Peninsula which relies on rainfall during the monsoon transition period to replenish its water reserves. The risk of drought could pressure the agricultural sector, particularly off-season rice cultivation in the northern "rice bowl" areas, increasing the risk of food insecurity and higher food prices, and exposing the public to heatstroke and other heat-related health issues.