Europe’s crumbling coastlines face a €800 billion crisis. Is it time to move inland?

Nearly half of Europe's population resides near the coast, yet their future remains uncertain. The relentless march of rising sea levels, driven by human-induced global warming, is steadily eroding vital infrastructure, homes, and heritage across 28 European nations. The financial toll of coastal erosion surpasses €1 billion annually and could soar to an alarming €800 billion by the century's end if no decisive action is taken.

A new report by The Council of Europe advocates for Europe to contemplate relocating homes, businesses, and infrastructure away from the coastlines prior to it being too late. This report posits that many European coasts should urgently undertake "planned retreat" measures. Essentially, this implies prohibiting or restricting future developments along the shorelines and relocating vital assets, such as roads, railways, and residences, to more resilient inland locations.

France estimates that approximately 900 kilometers of mainland coastline are receding, impacting over 500 municipalities. In Quiberville-sur-Mer, a small Normandy town, a €9 million investment successfully relocated a public campsite inland, resulting in a 25% boost in municipal revenue.

Yet, relocating entire neighborhoods or historical sites proves far more challenging than shifting a campsite. Nonetheless, coastal communities might have to relocate if alternative solutions fail. In Venice, for example, experts anticipate the need for sea walls, or dikes, beyond 0.5 meters of sea level rise, which could occur by 2100 even with minimal emissions. This endeavor could cost up to €4.5 billion, but it would not provide a long-term solution.

Building a towering super levee to enclose the lagoon could protect Venice against sea level rise of up to 10 meters, but the initial expense might exceed €30 billion. Relocating the city, its residents, and iconic landmarks could become necessary beyond 4.5 meters of sea-level rise, projected to occur after 2300, at a potential cost of up to €100 billion.

Over a quarter of Europe's coastline is currently eroding. The report, titled 'How can we cope with coastal erosion?', emphasizes the need for authorities to update risk maps, establish no-build zones, and buffer areas, as well as devise adaptation plans evaluating the legal, social, and financial implications of various choices.

These planning efforts should involve the affected communities directly: transparent consultation, public outreach, and steadfast political backing are crucial, along with measures to safeguard livelihoods, cultural heritage, and vulnerable populations.

Greek politician and co-author of the report, Fanis Spanos, emphasizes, "Europe's coastlines are among our most valuable assets. They host major infrastructure, support vital economic activity, and are centers of cultural and natural heritage." Co-author Anthony Buchanan argues that defending Europe's coasts with traditional methods, such as constructing sea walls, is becoming increasingly unsustainable due to the rapid acceleration of sea levels.

Sea level rise has doubled in recent years and is projected to rise by another 44 centimeters by 2100. Storms are becoming more intense and frequent, and extreme storm surges are expected to occur 20 to 30 times more often by 2050, according to Buchanan.