October ship attacks in Hormuz reach wartime peak

Attacks on commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters have reached their highest monthly level since the Iran conflict began in February, with a surge in strikes during the last days of October raising concerns about maritime safety. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy documented 28 confirmed and reported incidents in October, bringing its total to 113 since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran commenced on February 28.

Additional incidents have occurred since, but an official monthly count is yet to be released. Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington-based institute, described October as the worst month for attacks since they started tracking such events in 2017. The unrest persisted into Thursday and Friday, when the UK Maritime Trade Operations issued warnings about tankers hit by projectiles and possibly explosive devices.

One tanker was struck by two limpet mines about 25 nautical miles off Khasab, Oman, causing an engine-room fire and briefly disabling the ship. The crew escaped unharmed, extinguished the fire, and resumed its journey. The Panama-flagged Louise 1 was the vessel involved, but the attacker's identity remains unknown. This incident marked the first successful use of limpet mines against commercial shipping in the waterway during the conflict.

UKMTO also reported separate cases where tankers were hit by unidentified projectiles during outbound passages through the strait, with investigations still underway. The International Maritime Organization had logged around 120 maritime incidents across the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East by October 23, generally supporting the view that shipping security has worsened.

Over 30 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) sustained damage during the conflict, including 11 during October. These vessels account for approximately 3.5 per cent of the world's supertanker fleet and can carry about two million barrels of oil each, making attacks on them especially significant for regional oil exports and global energy markets.

Marisks, a Greek maritime consultancy, identified October as the most intense period of attacks around Hormuz since the conflict intensified, noting 12 vessels attacked between October 5 and October 11, the highest weekly total since the war started. Despite the heightened risks, ship operators have kept transporting oil through the waterway.

Lloyd’s List data revealed that 104 vessels without Iranian ties crossed the strait between October 5 and October 11, compared to 126 the previous week. Although traffic decreased, the October figure was still 31 per cent above the August weekly average, showing the commercial motivation for shipowners to continue operations. Raydan believes Iran aims to deter shipping and keep pressure on international energy markets.

This interpretation is based on Tehran's intentions, not a proven explanation for every incident. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has kept a military presence around the strategic passage, while American naval forces have maintained operations to protect commercial shipping and enforce restrictions on Iranian maritime trade.

The competing activities have complicated the security environment, with attacks involving drones, missiles, mines, and projectiles posing varied challenges for ship operators and naval escorts. The US Navy's Joint Maritime Information Center has also documented attempted attacks, surveillance, drone flights, and radio communications directed at merchant vessels, which can disrupt voyages even when vessels are not physically damaged.

UKMTO had recorded 135 incidents connected to the conflict by October 16, but acknowledged difficulties in establishing a complete picture because commercial operators do not always submit voluntary incident reports. The security situation has forced shipping companies to distinguish between confirmed attacks, unverified claims, attempted strikes, and military encounters that do not result in physical damage.