What Donald Trump will do after the midterms – lose or lose

The US midterm elections on November 3rd will determine the control of Congress, but the outcome may also set the stage for the political battles that will shape the 2028 presidential race. If Democrats secure both chambers, they could wield greater influence to scrutinize President Donald Trump's administration and investigate alleged abuses of power.

However, Democrats must also navigate internal divisions between their moderate establishment wing and progressive faction, which advocates for more left-leaning economic and social policies. The midterms offer an early glimpse at which approach resonates with voters.

Both Democratic candidates are testing the appeal of progressive politics. Abdul El-Sayed, running for the US Senate in Michigan, emphasizes unity and coalition-building across demographic, geographic, and ideological divides. Peggy Flanagan, campaigning in Minnesota, also stresses the importance of bridging divides. Analysts believe strong performances by progressive candidates in closely contested races would bolster their influence over the party's 2028 presidential nomination process.

Meanwhile, Democrats seeking to appeal to more centrist voters include Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia and James Talarico in Texas, who aims to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas in nearly four decades. The contrasting campaigns highlight a broader debate within the party about whether the path back to the White House lies in energizing the progressive base or appealing to a wider coalition of moderate and independent voters.

The midterm results will help shape this debate ahead of the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries.