Netanyahu survived Israel's election - but a political reckoning may only be beginning

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu survived Israel's recent election, but a political reckoning may be just beginning. Despite facing numerous challenges throughout the campaign, Netanyahu emerged with the upper hand. While he may not have a clear path to a 61-seat coalition, he is firmly in the driver's seat with the support of the country's Jewish parties.

Yair party head Gadi Eisenkot aimed to prevent Netanyahu from winning by not losing. However, securing 61 seats would require support from the Arab parties, which some leaders have refused to provide due to concerns about Israel's identity as a Jewish state. If Netanyahu's efforts fail, he can wait for another round of elections, potentially extending his tenure by nearly half a year.

The parties will enter coalition negotiations with the anticipation of future campaigns, which could constrain Eisenkot's bloc in their pursuit of a minority government with support from Arab parties. While this arrangement might offer a way to replace Netanyahu, it would also provide him with a potent campaign weapon if the government remains short-lived and Israel quickly returns to the polls.

Netanyahu's remarkable ability to remain in power despite October 7's aftermath is astounding. His Likud party lost only six seats since the previous election, and he turned the tide of the war, delivering devastating blows to its enemies over the next three years. Opposition parties, who previously criticized Netanyahu's legal cases, had fewer opportunities to attack him this time.

The change bloc failed to secure a majority, despite the events of October 7 and Netanyahu's refusal to establish a state commission of inquiry. This failure suggests that something is not working. The opposition must reassess its message, leadership, and strategies to win future elections, as defeating Netanyahu under these favorable circumstances appears to be challenging.