Isu Tabung Haji tak cukup tekan Umno berubah, kata penganalisis

Analysts say the Tabung Haji (TH) controversy is unlikely to significantly influence Malay voters, instead reducing pressure on Umno to prove the party has changed before the PRN Melaka general election, says Syaza Shukri from Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia. She believes Umno should address the TH management issues but does not expect accountability demands to heavily sway voters' choices.

"At this stage, Umno seems less concerned about presenting itself as a party that has changed, especially with the resurgence of support," she told FMT. The gap between principle and action can undermine voter trust, but it doesn't foresee the issue significantly impacting the PRN Melaka or the 2016 general election. "The issue doesn't seem that important in current political discussions.

Unfortunately, it's being treated like one of many scandals we've faced," she added. While individual punishment may be politically feasible, a comprehensive solution requires investigating the systemic weaknesses and governance failures that allowed the problems to occur. The Royal Malaysian Commission of Inquiry (RCI) report on TH's management and operations from 2014 to 2020, released on July 29, identified management deficiencies and political interference in the institution's management and profit distribution.

In an interview on October 25, Sultan of Selangor, Sharafuddin Idris Shah, expressed disappointment over TH's mismanagement while emphasizing that revenue for religious purposes must be managed with accountability and responsibility. Awang Azman Pawi from Universiti Malaya said there is no sufficient specific evidence to measure the issue's impact on Malay voters or nationally.

He noted that voters also consider economic performance, leadership, and local development, but Umno remains responsible for addressing TH's governance, election, and protection of the institution. "Acknowledging past management weaknesses doesn't mean accepting collective guilt. Political responsibility must be distinguished from criminal liability," he said.

To initiate reform, Umno must prove it by appointing qualified professionals, independent oversight, and transparent financial reporting, not just declarations of change. Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri from Global Asia Consulting said the TH mismanagement's impact is not as direct as a price hike, while the party's identity, loyalty, and local interests also influence voter choices.

He believes the current government must prove reform by restoring assets, financial discipline, and accountability measures, not just blaming past administration. "For me, the real test for Umno is not whether the public has forgotten the old scandals, but whether Umno is willing to clean its own house even if the public no longer demands it," he added.