'A wave can hide a lot of weaknesses': Dems question if they'll learn anything

Democrats are optimistic about a successful night during the upcoming midterm elections. However, this success may not necessarily indicate that the party has discovered how to win. A dozen lawmakers, campaign operatives, strategists, and pollsters have expressed concerns that national Democrats might draw incorrect conclusions if they gain control of at least one chamber of Congress next week.

They believe the midterms, which have become a referendum on President Donald Trump, have not significantly improved the Democratic Party's brand. These individuals warn that a favorable political environment has masked persistent problems for a party still struggling to understand why it lost the 2024 presidential election. Furthermore, they admit that there is still considerable division among them regarding the party's message heading into 2028.

Morgan Jackson, the senior adviser to Democrat Roy Cooper’s Senate campaign in North Carolina, stated that "Don't confuse them losing with us winning." He emphasized that this outcome does not affirm the Democratic Party in any way. A veteran Democratic pollster, who spoke anonymously to share candid insights, agreed, stating that "it is very much a rejection of Trump."

The Democratic Party's approval rating dropped after the 2024 presidential election and remains relatively weak. Despite voters expressing greater trust in Democrats compared to Republicans on issues such as the cost of living, a primary concern for voters, Democrats have struggled to articulate a coherent, positive message addressing rising prices and perceived corruption in Washington.

This issue has been exacerbated by infighting between the party's progressive and moderate factions over the best approach to respond to the Trump administration. The party's formal autopsy of its 2024 performance revealed internal tensions, but as Americans increasingly disapproved of Trump's agenda and the Iran war drove up costs, Democrats focused on a broad "costs, chaos, and corruption" message that blamed the White House without resolving their own internal disputes.

Matt Barron, a Democratic strategist working across the rural Midwest and Rust Belt, noted that "If all you do is say the other people are terrible, that only gets you so far." Oliver Libby, a Democratic donor who advised Democratic House candidates, emphasized that "you can have a minimum viable product of a midterm with criticism. You definitely don't win a presidential year with just criticism."

Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist and adviser to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, stated that "there are people who are going to vote in this election who are going to vote against Republicans." However, he clarified that this does not mean they are in love with Democrats; they simply vote against the current leadership.

Democratic strategist Lis Smith, who helped found moderate groups Majority Democrats and The Bench, suggested that Democratic candidates performing well in historically deep-red territory are distancing themselves from the national party. Smith advised party leaders to take note of this development.

As Democrats assume control of at least one chamber of Congress, top party operatives see an opportunity to deliver for voters seeking more oversight of the Trump administration's expansive use of executive power. However, many caution against an overemphasis on an anti-Trump message during the next election cycle. Instead, some argue that a focus on corruption and elite control over the economy will continue to mobilize voters.

Bill Neidhardt, who worked on Bernie Sanders' 2020 presidential campaign, advised left-leaning Democratic candidates to concentrate on these issues, emphasizing that "what they need to focus on is not just being against Trump, but addressing the underlying problems that led to his rise in the first place."