US inflation rises to 3.6% in September, strengthening bets on Fed rate hike in December

In September, US inflation increased to 3.6%, boosting speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in December. This surge was driven by higher gasoline and other goods prices, as per the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures price changes for goods and services. The PCE index climbed by 0.5% in September, matching economists' expectations.

Over the past year, US PCE inflation reached 3.6%, surpassing the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% in September, up from 0.2% in August. Despite the central bank keeping its interest rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh highlighted persistent energy price increases and the need to prevent sectoral price hikes from affecting the broader economy.

Financial markets priced an 84.6% likelihood of a December rate hike, with inflation figures featured in the advance GDP report for the July-September quarter, showing a 3.4% growth rate. US consumer spending followed a slight uptick of 0.5% in September, aligning with an 0.9% increase in August, but remained steady when adjusted for inflation.