Canadian Dollar: Break below 1.40 favors CAD against US Dollar - Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret say the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is flat versus the US Dollar (USD) but firmer against other commodity currencies, supported by a modestly hawkish Bank of Canada (BoC) hike.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret have reported that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is currently flat against the US Dollar (USD), but stronger against other commodity currencies. This strength is attributed to a slightly hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, which has tightened yield spreads and pushed the fair value of USD/CAD under 1.3980.
A technical analysis indicates that the CAD/USD pair is likely to break below the critical 1.40 level, with a lack of significant support anticipated until the 1.3900/1.3920 zone. Following the BoC Governor's comparatively more hawkish stance than previous statements, expectations for rate hikes across the yield curve have seen a slight increase. This hawkishness has contributed to the narrowing of yield spreads, leading to a fair value of CAD at 1.3979.
The technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below 40, and the pair hovering around the 1.39 mark. The potential for a further decline below the mid/upper 1.39s remains, as highlighted by Scotiabank's insights.
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