US copper stockpiles conceal growing global supply crunch
Chinese premiums and African risks highlight a disconnect between copper inventories and physical market conditions.
A recent study by GEM Mining Consulting reveals that the United States is hoarding a disproportionate share of global copper inventories, obscuring supply constraints in other regions and contributing to a fragmented market with both surpluses and shortages. As of October, nearly 70% of visible exchange copper stocks were held in US warehouses, a significant increase from historical norms.
Global inventories rose to 1.04 million tonnes in October, an 83% jump from the previous year, but much of this metal is physically separated from buyers in non-US markets. This inventory imbalance helps explain conflicting forecasts for 2026, with the International Copper Study Group predicting a surplus of 104,000 tonnes, while Goldman Sachs expects a deficit of roughly 950,000 tonnes outside the US, with prices potentially reaching $14,700 per tonne by year-end.
Speculative activity remains cautious ahead of the US midterm elections, despite China's Hong Kong cathode premium surpassing $200 per tonne and Shanghai premiums for non-registered cathodes reaching record levels. The disparity suggests that total inventory figures are becoming an unreliable indicator of copper availability, especially as US trade policy encourages metal to remain in American warehouses while buyers abroad face rising costs.
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