Our climate models have a big, dangerous blind spot
Climate change itself is increasingly fueling climate change. Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases are driving up global temperatures, setting off dangerous feedback loops that we have not fully accounted for in our climate models—or our emissions-reduction goals. Scientists have long warned that warming would propel further warming in various ways, but a growing number of…
Our climate models lack critical details about the dangerous feedback loops of climate change, which is causing global temperatures to rise even faster than previously anticipated. While scientists have long warned that warming would trigger further warming through various mechanisms, recent studies have provided a clearer picture of the immense impact these effects could have.
A study published in Environmental Research Letters found that the release of additional carbon dioxide and methane from thawing permafrost, intensified wildfires, warmer lakes and reservoirs, and wetter, warmer wetlands could increase global temperatures by 0.2°C to 0.4°C this century, on top of the 2.6°C of warming already expected through 2100.
Many climate models and the UN's reports do not account for these feedback effects, leaving a significant blind spot in our understanding of the potential warming and the urgency required to reduce emissions. The analysis in One Earth concludes that certain regions facing warming-driven emissions, such as thawing permafrost, increasing fires in boreal forests, and warming tropical wetlands, could shorten the time before the planet surpasses 1.5°C and 2°C warming thresholds by up to 25%.
To address this issue, international teams are collaborating on an initiative to better understand the power of these feedback effects, with hopes that the UN will incorporate the findings into its upcoming climate assessment in 2029. While some researchers are exploring ways to control warming-driven emissions, such as preventing fires or manipulating wetlands, the most effective solution remains reducing our dependence on fossil fuels.
Written by urgent.news from MIT Technology Review's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
