Netanyahu vs Eisenkot: What Israel’s political stalemate means for energy markets and the Middle East

The Israel parliamentary elections, held on October 27, 2023, are shaping up to be a closely contested race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and its right-wing allies, and his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party. The election comes just over a year after the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attacks, which caused widespread turmoil in the Middle East.

With approximately 7.3 million eligible voters, the vote aims to determine Netanyahu's future in office and the composition of the governing coalition.

The election pits two main blocs against each other. The pro-Netanyahu coalition, led by Likud and joined by several far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, seeks to maintain Netanyahu's position. This coalition includes United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. On the other side, the opposition coalition comprises four Jewish-led opposition movements, including Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, and Together alliance.

Although the polls slightly favor the opposition, Netanyahu may still retain power if he secures enough support from existing allies or new coalition partners.

If Netanyahu's coalition fails to win an outright majority, the opposition bloc – which includes the Yashar party, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Together alliance – could emerge as the winner with a projected 52 seats. This would put Gadi Eisenkot at the forefront of the potential opposition leadership. However, Netanyahu's traditional partners, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party, could also play a significant role in forming a coalition.

With no single party having won an outright majority in recent elections, coalition negotiations typically take several weeks. The final tally is expected by October 30, and the winner will be officially named by November 4. The president will then consult party leaders to determine who will serve as prime minister, with the chosen nominee having up to 42 days to form a government.

The key players in this election include Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot, and the opposition bloc led by Yashar's Eisenkot and the Together alliance's Naftali Bennett. The Palestinian-led Joint List and Ra'am, representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, could also influence the outcome of the election.