Kongresswahlen: Was Trump passieren kann, wenn die Republikaner verlieren

Donald Trump has been touring the country, almost as if he were running for office himself, making multiple trips to various states in recent weeks ahead of the crucial midterm congressional elections on Tuesday. These Midterms are often seen as a chance for the public to assess a president's policies midway through their term. Trump himself encourages his supporters by saying, "Imagine if I were on the ballot," almost daily in his campaign speeches.

Despite his low approval ratings, Trump believes he can still mobilize the Republican votebase, as he stands to gain a lot from its outcome. While polls suggest Democrats have a strong chance of performing well, the stakes are high for Trump. If the Republicans lose either the House or the Senate, there are several moves Trump could try to make.

Historically, the party of the sitting president has lost seats in the House in midterms 25 out of the past 25 years, according to Julia Simon, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, speaking to Deutsche Presse-Agentur. If Democrats gain enough seats to take control of the House, they could initiate extensive investigations into Trump.

With control of the House, Democrats could block Republican initiatives as laws must be passed in both chambers for them to become law. Crucially, Democrats would also have the power to veto Trump's budget bills, which could lead to further fiscal disputes and government shutdowns if there's no timely agreement on funding. The loss of the Senate would also have significant implications.

While historically the president's party has lost seats in the Senate during midterms, the trend is less clear. Democrats would need to gain a four-seat majority to secure control of the chamber, which is considered a difficult task given current polling. If Democrats win the Senate, Trump would no longer have the upper hand in confirming cabinet members, federal judges, or ambassadors, as the Senate must approve these appointments.

This would be the first time since 2006 that a party loses control of both chambers. For Trump, this would undoubtedly feel like a personal defeat and could lead to questions about the loyalty of his party members. Should Democrats win the House and invoke an impeachment process, even though two impeachment proceedings against Trump were initiated by the House during his first term and both were acquitted by the Senate, it could potentially damage Trump's image.

It could also strengthen the unity of his base if it is viewed as politically motivated. Potential impeachment proceedings could target not only Trump but also his cabinet members. This scenario is seen as more likely by some observers. Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of Defense, is particularly under scrutiny, partly due to the Iran war.