Geldpolitik: EZB lässt Leitzins trotz hoher Inflation vorerst bei 2,5 Prozent

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its main interest rate at 2.5% despite high inflation levels. In its statement following the decision, the ECB highlighted that the recent surge in energy prices is currently exacerbating inflationary pressures, posing potential downward risks to growth prospects. The full impact of these price shocks has not yet materialized, according to the bank.

Since the ECB's last meeting in September, inflationary pressures have accelerated: European Brent crude oil prices climbed from $102 per barrel to $115, reaching their highest level in six months, while European natural gas prices surged to over 100 euros per megawatt-hour for the first time in nearly four years. Concerns persist that these higher prices could become entrenched in various sectors of the economy.

Market participants and observers largely anticipated the ECB's decision to maintain rates, similar to the move by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in the previous session. However, the ECB's pause in raising interest rates remains the prevailing expectation. Christine Lagarde, the ECB's president, announced her temporary resignation shortly before the decision and will leave the bank in February 2027, a quarter before her regular term ends.

Lagarde's departure is expected to be a central topic in the press conference starting at 14:45. The story will be covered live on the website. Additionally, the situation in Lagarde's native France will be discussed, particularly the recent increase in bond yields. France's refinancing costs have risen by 0.71 percentage points since the September meeting, the highest level since the Euro crisis.

The ECB will take this into account, according to Mike Heise, chief economist at HQ Trust. This development might support those advocating for a prolonged interest rate pause.