Ukraine’s central bank cuts 2026 GDP forecast from growth to 0.4% contraction
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has sharply downgraded its gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for 2026 and 2027, now projecting a 0.4% economic contraction this year instead of 1.8% growth and cutting its 2027 growth forecast from 2.8% to just 0.4%, the central bank announced in a statement on Oct. 29.
The National Bank of Ukraine has reduced its 2026 GDP forecast from a 1.8% growth to a 0.4% contraction, the bank announced on October 29. This decision primarily reflects the negative impact of Russian attacks on production facilities and logistics. Metallurgical and ore-mining businesses, along with other industrial sectors, trade, and agriculture, have experienced significant losses.
The bank estimates that Russian attacks have decreased GDP growth by 1.9 percentage points. Despite this grim outlook, the National Bank anticipates recovery in economic activity next year, driven by investments in defense industries, weapon localization, and infrastructure restoration projects. If logistics improve by mid-2027, the bank predicts a 0.4% increase in real GDP.
Additionally, the nominal GDP forecast for 2026 has been lowered from 10.065 trillion hryvnias to 10.01 trillion hryvnias, and for 2027 from 11.22 trillion hryvnias to 11.135 trillion hryvnias. These adjustments were driven by the State Statistics Service's downward revision of the second-quarter GDP growth estimate, which dropped from 0.6% to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2026.
Written by urgent.news from New Voice of Ukraine's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
