Wohnkonzern: Vonovia senkt Wachstumsziele für 2028 – höhere Zinsen bremsen Wachstum

Immobilienkonzern Vonovia has lowered its growth targets for 2028 due to rising interest rates and a sluggish transaction market. The company announced on Wednesday that it will halt new investments under the Manage-to-Green program for the time being. While targeted investments, such as decarbonization, will continue, the new residential development of its own portfolio will be reduced.

Vonovia is currently examining the segment strategically to achieve higher risk-adjusted returns and align its business model more closely with affordable housing. The company is also focusing on a liquidity protection plan and expects its operating result (Adj. EBITDA) for the current year to be in the lower half of the previous range of 2.95 to 3.05 billion euros.

The adjusted profit before taxes (Adj. EBT) is expected to be at the lower end of the range of 1.9 to 2.0 billion euros. Organic rental growth is expected to be slightly lower than previously forecasted at 3.8 percent, with about 3.8 percent growth. The information is based on preliminary figures for the first nine months, pending a review.

The full interim report for the third quarter is scheduled for publication on November 4th. Vonovia is issuing a forecast for 2027, with Adj. EBITDA expected to slightly surpass the 2026 level and Adj. EBT approximately at the previous year's level. Investments are projected to amount to around 1.5 billion euros, with organic rental growth forecast at around 4.0 percent, significantly below the analyst consensus of 4.8 percent.

The target for 2028 has been lowered from approximately 5.0 to 4.5 percent. This is due to higher capital costs in project development, which delay the creation of new residential housing for the company's portfolio. The investment volume for 2028 is expected to fall from around 2 billion euros to approximately 1.7 billion euros.

The priority remains debt reduction. The market environment has worsened after a recovery until mid-February, with increased geopolitical uncertainties, the conflict in the Middle East, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision in September significantly deteriorating financing conditions. Since the escalation in the Middle East began, the yield on Vonovia's eight-year bonds has risen by about 140 basis points.

Vonovia's CEO, Luka Mucic, stated, "Vonovia's core operating business remains stable, but higher financing costs burden both the financial result and transaction volumes in our sales-related business segments." The company, however, is focusing on stricter return requirements, the review of project development, and liquidity security.

The core residential rental business, encompassing over 528,000 apartments in Germany, Sweden, and Austria, continues to thrive robustly. AI-driven efficiency initiatives are expected to contribute around 50 million euros annually to the operating result starting in 2030.