The prince, the General, the fallen ally: The mechanics of neutralization (I)

There is a familiar pattern playing out between President Bola Tinubu and his former ally, Nasir El-Rufai. The public perceives this situation as betrayal, but it is a recurring theme in the theatre of power. El-Rufai's statement that he seeks neither revenge nor retribution, and that accountability lies with God, is commendable.

However, reconciling this situation with the dynamics at play is not straightforward. El-Rufai's experience is not unique; it is a common occurrence. Ancient civilizations such as the Greeks, Romans, and Italians understood this dynamics. In his book, "The Prince," Machiavelli never intended it as a moral treatise but rather a clinical examination of how power is acquired, maintained, and lost.

He warned that those who rise to power through the support and resources of others stand on precarious ground, relying on those who elevated them; the individual who ascends through the strength of others must eventually neutralize those who enabled them—or face being neutralized themselves. Tinubu discerned this instinctively. When El-Rufai provided northern votes that were instrumental in Tinubu's 2023 presidential victory, their relationship was not mere support but strategic collaboration.

El-Rufai was no ordinary supporter; he was a kingmaker, akin to a military general who secured the troops and territory, thus ensuring Tinubu's triumph. This was an alliance built on mutual utility, not friendship. The nomination process played a pivotal role. In July 2023, when Tinubu submitted his ministerial list, El-Rufai's name was notably included.

This was not a reward but an act of feigned loyalty, designed to conceal the true purpose behind the move. By nominating El-Rufai, Tinubu served three strategic objectives: deflecting blame for any rejection onto the Senate, placing El-Rufai under public scrutiny and security clearance, and buying time to consolidate a loyal cabinet.

Machiavelli advises that the true intentions of the prince should be veiled while the desired outcome is achieved. The Senate's rejection of El-Rufai on security grounds was not a reflection of due process but rather a performance of due process. Other governors with similar or even more questionable profiles were approved without issue, simply because they were more compliant, lacked ambition, or were sufficiently indebted to the presidency.

El-Rufai's independent stature, strong northern network, and ability to mobilize supporters made him a liability in Tinubu's tightly controlled cabinet. The Senate became the intermediary executing the unpopular move, while the president maintained plausible deniability. El-Rufai later admitted in a 2025 interview that the president did not want him in his cabinet, claiming that the security clearance was merely a smokescreen, and that less qualified nominees were confirmed due to the president's personal decisions.

This scenario of El-Rufai's neutralization is echoed in historical accounts. In Rome, Sejanus, the prefect of the Praetorian Guard under Tiberius, was a trusted ally who eliminated rivals and became the second-most powerful figure. However, his ability to wield power made him too indispensable to the emperor, leading to his downfall orchestrated by the Senate through a strategic move.

Similarly, El-Rufai, despite his independent base, faced a similar fate due to his inability to be controlled completely. The parallels extend beyond politics to historical and religious narratives. Julius Caesar, struck down by Brutus, the individual he had pardoned, and the biblical stories of Joseph, David, Job, and Jesus, all depict powerful individuals betrayed by those they relied on.

Similarly, in Islam, the Prophet Muhammad faced betrayal, and Karbala remains a testament to the consequences of inviting treachery. The Quran advises believers that pain from betrayal is a test, and that true wisdom comes from accepting it as the will of God. El-Rufai's experience, therefore, is a culmination of a universal truth, a painful rite of passage for leaders who have been elevated and then neutralized.

His statement, reflecting a Muslim perspective, offers a profound insight into the nature of power and the inevitability of betrayal in the world of politics.