Tax revenue estimates go off mark due to outdated forecast models: state auditor

SEOUL, Oct. 27 (Yonhap) -- The government's estimated tax revenue fell short of actual receipts by over 50 trillion won ($37.8 billion) per year for the past five years, according to the state auditor. The Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) conducted a thorough audit of the government's fiscal management and discovered an average discrepancy of 51.5 trillion won between the estimated and actual income from 2021 to 2025.

The primary reason for the significant differences, the BAI explained, was the continued use of outdated corporate income statistics, even when corporate earnings were anticipated to decline due to abrupt shifts in global economic circumstances, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additionally, the agency highlighted the lack of adequate consideration for the impact of tax law amendments.

The BAI recommended that the finance ministry develop more accurate estimation models to address these issues.