Prediction markets open new front for US election misinformation

As US midterms approach, prediction markets are emerging as a new tool and potential source of misinformation, experts warn. With billions at stake, Polymarket and Kalshi are enabling users to trade contracts on election outcomes, despite surveys showing most Americans disapprove of election betting. These companies have partnered with major news organizations, blurring the lines between financial speculation and election coverage.

While prediction markets offer alternative data, they can still be misconstrued as guarantees, potentially sowing confusion among voters. Already, unsubstantiated claims of fraud, a central theme of President Trump's political movement, are being fueled by prediction market information. Even as Kalshi stresses its data is distinct from polls and not a promise of outcomes, concerns remain about how the line between expectations and reality could be crossed, especially as election outcomes diverge.