Scientists produce less disruptive research as they age, but their breakthroughs are more likely to last
Science often advances in small steps, with researchers gradually building on previous discoveries. But every now and then, a breakthrough comes along that challenges conventional thinking and changes the direction of a field.
A study of 11.2 million research papers spanning over four decades suggests that as scientists age, they produce fewer disruptive ideas, though those they do generate tend to have a longer-lasting impact. Led by Nan Deng of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, researchers analyzed the papers to measure both disruption and persistence of influence in scientific fields.
Early in their careers, scientists are more inclined to publish highly disruptive work that overturns existing knowledge. However, as they gain experience, they seem less likely to produce such groundbreaking ideas, yet the breakthroughs they do produce remain influential over time. The probability of a paper contributing to enduring disruption rises from around 1% in a scientist's early years to 2.2% by their 40s.
This trend holds true across most scientific disciplines, though it appears less pronounced in mathematics and computer science. Researchers caution that the findings indicate an association and not a direct causal link between age and the persistence of disruptive work.
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