Investors eye elections, central banks and earnings

Markets are anticipating central bank interest rate decisions this week, with expectations of rate hikes from Canada and New Zealand, while the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank are expected to maintain current rates. Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term, while Serbia's Aleksandar Vucic was ousted by a student-led protest movement.

Brazil's real is yet to be traded, but a Brazilian ETF in Tokyo has fallen nearly 15%, reversing gains when Senator Flavio Bolsonaro led in the first round of voting. Bolsonaro refused to concede, stating he would challenge the result. Israel's Likud party, supported by former US president Donald Trump, is set to vote next. Wall Street futures and most Asian markets are slightly down.

Oil prices have eased, possibly due to Qatari mediators visiting Tehran to de-escalate regional tensions. However, Brent futures surged over 6% last week due to Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, raising concerns about energy supplies. Trump suggested a potential military operation against Iran, while Iran threatened retaliation, including targeting submarine cables.

Central bankers are likely to be cautious, even if they don't raise rates this time. Earnings highlights include Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, among one-third of S&P 500 companies reporting. Intel and Sandisk results could impact the AI sector. Consensus expects Microsoft to report $90.6 billion in revenue and an adjusted EPS of $4.73, while Amazon is projected at $202 billion in revenue and EPS around $1.97.

Alphabet is seen at $128 billion in revenue and EPS of $3.00. In Asia, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics report this week, with SK Hynix planning to announce shareholder return measures on Wednesday, following reports of a potential special dividend of about 16 trillion won ($12 billion).