Forget war with Iran, is Netanyahu going to try to pull a January 6 after Israel's election?

In Israel's upcoming election, the outcome remains uncertain due to the tight margins. The polls suggest a dead heat between the right-wing and religious bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the so-called change bloc opposing him. Neither side is expected to secure a decisive majority in the 120-seat Knesset, leading to the possibility of a stalemate. This uncertainty could result in protracted negotiations, a minority government, or even a new election.

The election comes after three years of conflict on multiple fronts, including wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as Iran. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is seeking to form a coalition government similar to his current one, relying on partnerships with ultranationalist and Jewish religious parties. He argues that only his leadership can maintain a strong response to Iran's nuclear threat, a claim he emphasizes through provocative imagery on social media.

Eisenkot, the front-runner for the change bloc, is a former Israeli military chief and centrist politician. He frames his campaign as one of reunifying Israel after years of division attributed to Netanyahu. He has vowed to investigate the intelligence failures that led to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, a move Netanyahu has blocked.

Uzi Aharoni, a 73-year-old Tel Aviv engineer and Eisenkot supporter, believes the centrist leader is a trustworthy and honest alternative to Netanyahu. The election's outcome may also be influenced by voter turnout, as past elections have shown Arab-Israeli voters to be inconsistent in their enthusiasm for participating in voting days.