A pause before escalation? Why Iran fears a all-out war after US midterm polls as Donald Trump weighs his next move

Israel heads to the polls on Tuesday in one of the most significant elections in its history, as voters evaluate the wartime leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The 2023 attacks on October 7 marked a disastrous security failure, along with Israel's destructive war in Gaza and subsequent campaigns in Lebanon, Iran, and across the region.

Polls predict a tight race that could lead to protracted coalition talks as Middle Eastern countries strive to restore stability. Former top general Gadi Eisenkot is seen as the best chance to unseat Netanyahu from opposition candidates. Arab minority voters may play a crucial role, with political sources predicting an "astronomical" turnout.

Opposition officials believe there's a possibility of a coalition or minority government with Arab parties, as voters have become more discerning between bad and worse under Netanyahu's hard-right government. Voting centers close at 10 PM Israeli time on Wednesday, with early exit polls providing a first indication of the results.

Preliminary results will emerge as votes are counted overnight. Netanyahu has resisted demands for a formal inquiry into October 7, instead emphasizing his hardline security stance through threats of a "second Holocaust" if Iran rearms and conducting questionable military operations in the West Bank. While Netanyahu has received support from US President Donald Trump, opposition candidates hold more conciliatory views toward Iran and have expressed some openness to the idea of a Palestinian state.

However, most main candidates remain firmly opposed to a Palestinian state. Palestinian analysts express little optimism about the election's outcome, with many in Gaza hoping Netanyahu loses due to his role in the devastating war that has claimed over 70,000 lives. With approximately 7.3 million Israelis eligible to vote for the 120-member Knesset, Israel has a history of political deadlock, having held five elections between 2019 and 2022 as parties struggled to form stable governments.

Netanyahu, who has led Israel for all but 18 months since 2009, would serve as a caretaker prime minister during any period of coalition talks. Some believe he might leverage such a deadlock to initiate new fighting with Iran. Romy Schlegel-Cohen, a 17-year-old from Tel Aviv, expressed fear for the country's future if Netanyahu wins again.

Reports suggest Netanyahu had been pushing for a joint US-Israeli strike on Iran before the election, which Trump ultimately rejected. Eisenkot expressed full trust in the military.