Bitcoin’s macro reset: Reclaim US$80,000 before the Fed speaks?

Bitcoin's price fell 0.97% to $79,912.85 in the past 24 hours, contributing to a 0.72% decline in the overall crypto market cap to $2.68 trillion. Correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 reached 83.4%, indicating a risk-asset repricing driven by fragile positioning and tighter financial conditions. Institutional flows, primarily outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, initiated the decline on October 22 and 23, with a combined loss of $773.5 million.

Leverage amplified the drop, with leveraged positions falling by $815 million to $837 million in a single day. Stop losses and forced sales also contributed to the decline, which removed speculative weight but exposed the overexposure of long positions. Geopolitical risk, such as President Trump's threat to strike Iran, added to the pressure, as Bitcoin, being a risk asset, does not serve as a hedge in crises.

The Federal Reserve's October 28 decision is the key near-term catalyst, with a hawkish tone potentially extending pressure and making a test of $77,600 more likely. A dovish shift or cooling inflation data could stabilize prices. Bitcoin currently trades below the $80,000 to $81,500 resistance zone, and a sustained failure to regain this level could lead to a bearish outlook, potentially testing the US$2.68 trillion to $2.6 trillion range.