Australia’s “worst ever” housing crash beckons

Coolabah Capital's Chris Joye has declared that Australia's current housing market "crash" is the most severe on record since 1980. According to data from Cotality, dwelling values in the national capital cities are declining at an annualized rate of 16% over the past three months. This 7.6% drop from the March 2026 peak is the worst decline ever, surpassing the 7.0% decline recorded in the same period of 2022-23 when the RBA raised interest rates aggressively after the pandemic.

Cotality's record for the worst housing crash is 8.6% between November 2017 and May 2019. However, with dwelling values down by 4.2% over the past quarter in the five main capital city markets, it is expected that the record peak-to-trough decline will be broken by late November. By the end of the year, dwelling values may plummet by as much as 10%.

The situation for 2027 looks grim, with the RBA likely to increase interest rates further and unemployment expected to exceed 5%. Consequently, housing demand will continue to decline, leading to more falling prices and homeowners facing foreclosure. Despite the bleak outlook, a majority of Australians, 61%, support the objective of bringing down house prices.