Halloween candy sales are off to a slow start amid high chocolate prices and affordability concerns

Halloween candy sales began slowly this year due to rising living costs and expensive chocolate. Sales dropped 6.7% in October compared to the same period last year, according to NielsenIQ. Candy sales also fell 11.7% in mid-September, reversing two years of preseason growth. Chris Costagli, a NielsenIQ food thought leader, attributes the decline to high gas prices, which have pressured Americans' affordability concerns.

Average gasoline prices are now $4.29 per gallon in the U.S., up nearly 40% from the previous year. "Consumers are spending a lot more on fuel, housing, clothing, and food," Costagli explained. "Some Halloween candy decisions aren't about price increases, but about affordability." Small bags of candy are the only size seeing sales growth through mid-October; large and extra-large bags are declining significantly.

U.S. candy prices have risen faster than inflation for several years, with candy and gum prices up 44% over five years as of September. This week, Aldi was selling a 135-piece variety pack of Mars chocolate bars for $19.87, nearly the same price as five years ago for a 250-piece pack. Cocoa prices, driven by a record high of $10,710 per metric ton in January due to poor weather in West Africa and speculative trading, have begun climbing again as the Iran war disrupts Africa's fertilizer supplies.

El Niño is expected to negatively impact production. However, even at lower prices, demand for non-chocolate Halloween candies remains muted. The average price of these candies was $6.08 per pound in the nine weeks ending October 17, about 3% lower than last year, but sales have not increased. U.S. consumers are also making smaller and more frequent supermarket trips and buying products right before use, which may delay Halloween candy purchases.

Despite this, the National Confectioners Association remains optimistic about Halloween sales, stating that consumer enthusiasm remains strong as they enter the peak period.