US lifting sanctions on 'dark fleet' not expected to solve tanker crisis

The US has lifted sanctions on "dark fleet" or shadow fleet vessels, but this move is not expected to resolve the tanker crisis currently affecting oil markets amid the ongoing Iran war. While the US action could provide some relief, especially in the Arabian Gulf where tanker availability has been constrained, analyst Salih Yilmaz predicts it won't solve the tanker crisis.

The majority of sanctioned vessels are reportedly already operating in restricted trades like Russia, Iran, or other sanctioned regions, rather than idling. Therefore, the sanctions relief would primarily redistribute existing capacity into mainstream markets. Another significant challenge is the ship owners' reluctance to operate tankers in the Arabian Gulf due to continuous attacks, which have resulted in 120 confirmed attacks and 22 seafarer fatalities since February.

Owners are paying high compensation, up to $100,000 per month, to attract captains willing to risk their vessels and crews through the Strait of Hormuz. The US government is collaborating with investors who buy idled sanctioned tankers, refurbish them, and use them for non-sanctioned oil transportation. However, industry analysts like Wanying Zhang from Vortexa remain skeptical that the US move will significantly boost tanker availability in the markets.

Zhang's analysis suggests that any easing of OFAC sanctions is unlikely to result in a substantial return of sanctioned tankers to regular trades, as a large share of these vessels still face UK or EU sanctions that might limit their access to European trades even if US restrictions are lifted. Additionally, the relatively old age of many of these vessels could further delay their return to mainstream trade, given potential maintenance, inspection, insurance, and commercial requirements.

About 70% of OFAC-listed tankers are at least 20 years old, reducing the likelihood of acceptance by regular charterers, according to industry experts.