The civil service may save us all

In the current political landscape, civil servants may turn out to be the unexpected saviors. While it's common knowledge that politicians are not the true rulers of government, it is the diligent civil servants who effectively steer the ship. This explains why both right-wing and left-wing populist leaders often advocate for "draining the swamp" and eliminating the "deep state."

However, research reveals that these populist leaders tend to inflict significant economic damage, costing economies up to 10% of their GDP within 15 years. This is especially detrimental for nations in Western Europe, where economic growth is already constrained by demographic challenges.

Massimo Morelli and his research team examined the impact of populist leaders on economies in countries with higher bureaucratic scores, which are characterized by a more rigorous and impartial administration, merit-based recruitment, and competitive remuneration for civil servants. The findings indicate that countries with such strong bureaucracies can mitigate the economic decline caused by populist leaders by about four years.

However, even in these countries, economic decline persists. The good news is that once a populist leader is voted out of office, the economy has a chance to recover. But if a populist leader manages to secure a second term, the situation becomes increasingly precarious for the economy.