Saudi Arabia wants to send 10 million barrels of oil a day around Hormuz. A former Treasury official says it may barely move prices

Saudi oil giant Aramco is working to increase the capacity of its East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, also called Petroline, to 10 million barrels a day from the current 7 million, according to its CEO Amin Nasser. This plan aims to lessen the kingdom's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely blocked since the U.S. and Israel launched a joint military assault on Iran on Feb.

28. The pipeline, which spans Saudi Arabia and runs about 750 miles from Abqaiq in the Persian Gulf to Yanbu on the Red Sea, carried roughly 2 million barrels a day before the conflict, increasing to 7 million in late March. Adding another 3 million barrels a day would be a major task, but it may not significantly impact global fuel prices, says Gilbert Metcalf, a former Treasury official and MIT professor.

"If the Saudis can raise pipeline flow to 10 million barrels per day, it will add about 2% more oil to the global market," Metcalf tells Fortune, "which could lower prices a bit, but there's a lot of uncertainty." The pipeline has been attacked multiple times, including in May 2019 by Houthi drones and more recently in April and September.

These attacks, along with threats in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, mean that even if the pipeline operates smoothly, it may not significantly reduce the world's reliance on Hormuz. Gulf producers are also exploring alternative solutions, such as a new pipeline being fast-tracked by the UAE.