Is a job guarantee the solution to mass AI unemployment?
An old idea springs anew as a chorus of influential voices predicts that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude In a preface to his book Capitalism and Freedom, the American economist Milton Friedman famously observed that a crisis can propel once-fringe ideas into the political mainstream. “Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are…
The looming threat of artificial intelligence (AI) replacing millions of jobs has sparked discussions on potential solutions. Renowned economist Milton Friedman observed that crises can transform fringe ideas into mainstream policies. Now, a growing chorus of influential voices predicts that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude, potentially causing widespread unemployment within one to five years.
Bill Gates and Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, have warned about the technology's impact on white-collar professions, law, finance, and technology. Even if these predictions are incorrect, investors may conclude AI is a bubble, leading to a recession and job loss. A policy idea gaining attention to mitigate this problem is a job guarantee.
This program would ensure that anyone who wants work is granted a meaningful, well-paid job. Supporters argue it could protect millions from financial and psychological harm and mobilize a labor force for societal challenges, such as infrastructure, climate adaptation, elder care, and childcare. The concept of a job guarantee has historical precedence, from the Works Progress Administration (WPA) during the Great Depression to recent implementations in France, India, and Argentina.
While a job guarantee and universal basic income (UBI) are often compared, recent surveys show greater support for job guarantees. Nick Hanauer emphasizes that jobs provide more than income, offering connection, dignity, enfranchisement, and participation. Economist Max Kasy explains that while monetary wages are a cost, job guarantees also save money by eliminating the need for unemployment or disability benefits, and stimulate economic activity through participant taxes and social contributions.
Psychological and social benefits are also crucial, as providing a good job can be transformative, reducing health problems associated with unemployment. US Representative Ayanna Pressley has reintroduced a congressional resolution calling for a federal job guarantee, proposing a minimum wage of $25 an hour for well-defined sectors, including emergency preparedness, elder care, and public art projects. Another proposal suggests taxing AI companies to fund the program.
Written by urgent.news from Guardian Technology's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
