How should investors think about GTA VI pre-order performance?

Investors should not be misled by the pre-order numbers of Grand Theft Auto VI, according to Goldman Sachs. In their report from October 19, the bank emphasized that digital distribution methods have transformed how consumers buy major video game releases. Since June 25, GTA VI has seen over six million pre-orders on PlayStation and Xbox platforms, as reported by third-party data.

However, more than 85% of Take-Two Interactive's implied download bookings for GTA VI are now digital, meaning customers no longer need to reserve copies months in advance. Unlike the 2013 release of GTA V, where physical copies were dominant, digital availability means players can buy the game closer to the launch date. Pre-order activity might pick up again around November 12, when pre-loading becomes an option.

Despite this, other indicators suggest strong anticipation for GTA VI. Google search interest in September was about 50% higher than previous pre-launch levels for GTA V, and a teaser trailer on Netflix garnered over 31 million views in just four days. These engagement metrics suggest the game could be one of the biggest AAA gaming releases ever.

Goldman Sachs estimates that up to 34 million units could be sold during Take-Two's fiscal year 2027, generating around $1.9 billion in implied download bookings, assuming a $79.99 price point and a 30% distribution fee. The market includes over 125 million PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S users, offering space for stronger-than-expected sales.

Premium editions might generate extra revenue, though their share may fall as casual players enter the market. Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ) is rated a Buy with a $285 price target, implying a potential 39% upside from the current reference price of $205.28. Ultimately, post-launch sales figures will offer a better insight into the game's commercial success than early pre-order trends.