Why Fossil Fuel Demand Can Rise Even as Clean Energy Wins Terrain
French historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz has offered energy-transition skeptics an appealing historical argument. In More and More and More, he argues that humanity has never really moved from one energy source to another. Wood was joined by coal, coal by oil, oil by gas and all of them by renewables. Energy sources accumulate rather than replace one another. Global primary-energy charts make the…
A French historian has argued that humanity has never truly transitioned from one energy source to another. Instead, energy sources accumulate over time. Fossil fuels, despite trillions in clean-energy investment, remain near record levels. The chart used to illustrate this argument uses the wrong scale and focuses on the wrong indicator.
Technologies compete in specific services and markets, not in a single global bucket labeled "energy." When fossil fuels' sales and installed equipment begin to decline, the global energy demand chart may appear to continue upward, creating an illusion of continuity. In fact, individual markets may be replacing fossil fuels while the global aggregate remains flat.
Different regions experience different trends, with traditional biomass potentially growing in poorer countries while collapsing in wealthier nations. The transition is far more complex than it may seem. Globally, sales of combustion-engine cars peaked in 2017 and have since dropped by nearly one-third, while electric-car sales have continued to grow.
However, most vehicles on the road still run on petrol or diesel, as car fleets turnover slowly. New technology captures market share before the old installed base disappears. Even though global oil demand shows only early signs of pressure, the displacement of oil by electric vehicles (EVs) is substantial. By the end of 2025, EVs accounted for almost 4% of the global vehicle fleet, displacing over 2 million barrels of oil per day.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts this displacement could reach 5 million barrels per day by 2030 and 9 million by 2035. Fossil fuels will not vanish entirely, but road transport, the largest consumer of oil, is no longer merely adding electric vehicles to an existing demand. The stock of combustion cars is taking time to align with the flow of new electric vehicles.
While electrification of various sectors can reduce primary energy consumption, it does not guarantee rapid fossil fuel decline for climate goals.
Written by urgent.news from OilPrice's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
