UN says we're going to blow past 1.5º warming, offers a "now what?" answer
Best case is now an overshoot to 1.8º C, accompanied by massive carbon removal.
In 2015, almost all countries except two pledged to curb global temperatures from rising by 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, this agreement has largely been viewed as aspirational, with one major emitter - the United States - vacillating between withdrawal and recommitment. Meanwhile, the globe has responded as anticipated to increasing carbon emissions and seems to be nearing the critical 1.5 degree threshold.
On Wednesday, the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) admitted this harsh reality. The organization now suggests that surpassing the 1.5 degree limit is no longer achievable. Instead, they propose focusing on two parameters: how long we exceed this limit and the extent of the excess, both of which must be minimized at the very least.
This will necessitate substantial immediate emissions reductions and the extraction of hundreds of gigatonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere before the end of the century. Acknowledging this grim situation, UNEP expects that the world has either almost reached or has already surpassed the 1.5 degree milestone. The current El Niño event, which is proving unusually strong, will likely result in the world having gone past this critical limit, regardless of the chosen baseline or temperature reconstruction.
Written by urgent.news from Ars Technica Policy's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
