The outcome of the battle for Donbas — and the war itself — hinges on whether Ukraine can hold Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. How are two former Azov commanders leading the defense?

The Ukrainian military's primary focus is on preventing the Russian offensive from advancing on the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk urban area. To achieve this, they have established two operational groupings, both led by former Azov Brigade commanders. The "Center" grouping, responsible for defending Sloviansk, is led by Andriy Biletsky, who previously commanded the 3rd Army Corps. Denys Prokopenko, the former commander of the 12th National Guard Brigade, is in charge of the troops protecting the approaches to Kramatorsk.

Biletsky's troops have already demonstrated their effectiveness with a successful offensive that forced Russia's 20th Army to retreat across the Siverskyi Donets north of Sloviansk. Now, their mission is to push back the forces advancing on the city from the east and south. Prokopenko's task is understandably more challenging. Upon assuming his new position during a fresh Russian breakthrough between Dobropillia and Kramatorsk, his forces are currently grappling with a severe crisis.

Russian troops have already taken control of Dobropillia and released footage of Russian assault troops in the city, some of which shows signs of AI processing. Ukrainian forces have responded with videos of their own strikes on Russian forces in Dobropillia. The attacking forces from the south have reached the city center, while those coming from the east have penetrated the northern outskirts via Hannivka.

A third group is moving between Dobropillia and the Pokrovsk–Dnipro road, aiming to split the forces defending the eastern part of the Dnipropetrovsk region.

The main concern for Ukrainian forces is a Russian breakthrough east of Dobropillia. They have moved additional forces from the eastern part of the Zaporizhzhia region and attempted a large-scale maneuver that failed in previous attempts. The goal now is to break through to Kramatorsk's southwestern outskirts. Russian forces have already retaken Kucheriv Yar and parts of the large village of Zolotyi Kolodiaz, locations where a Ukrainian counterattack in August 2025 halted a Dobropillia breakthrough.

Both sides have published videos attempting to prove control over Zolotyi Kolodiaz, making it unclear which side currently holds the village.

Russian forces have advanced to Novoandriivka on the road to Druzhkivka, raising the possibility of a breakthrough directly to Kramatorsk's southeastern outskirts. Simultaneously, another Russian grouping continues to advance along the front southeast of Kramatorsk, heading toward Bilokuzminovka, a location with challenging terrain that includes cliffs and hills. Despite this, Ukrainian forces still fear a Russian breakthrough towards the airport on Kramatorsk's southern edge.

East of Bilokuzminovka, Russian forces have resumed their advance along the Bakhmut–Sloviansk highway, aiming to reach Kramatorsk's northeastern outskirts. The Ukrainian command must also decipher the Russian offensive strategy, which initially seemed focused on encircling the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk urban area from the west and east while avoiding urban combat.

However, recent developments suggest that Russian command may have a different plan, potentially attempting to approach Kramatorsk from multiple directions and storm the city.