Rupee snaps eight-day rally as oil climbs to highest since May

India's rupee lost its momentum on Thursday, ending a streak of eight consecutive winning days, as oil prices surged to their highest level since May due to escalating Middle East conflict concerns. The Indian currency experienced a volatile trading session, fluctuating between its strongest level in over six weeks and closing down 0.4% at 94.8175 per dollar.

Foreign investments poured into Jio Platforms’ initial public offering, contributing to the currency's bullish trend; however, gains were eroded as oil prices rose later in the day. Traders attributed the decline to a general demand for the dollar locally, coupled with broader indications of risk aversion in global markets. The MSCI All-World index was poised for its largest single-day decline in two weeks, falling 0.4%, as tech stocks faced pressure worldwide.

Similarly, equity futures signaled a challenging opening for Wall Street stocks. Despite Gulf oil flows remaining robust, oil prices have remained high, driven by heightened market anxiety over the ongoing conflict. Analysts noted that the substantial risk premium currently embedded in prices is not expected to diminish until clear evidence of de-escalation emerges, reassuring investors about uninterrupted regional supply.

Brent oil prices surged 3.3%, settling at $112.40 per barrel. As India relies heavily on crude imports—nearly 90% of its needs—its vulnerability to Middle East oil shocks remains significant, posing a critical risk to the rupee. Opinions among market participants and observers diverge on the appropriate level of the Reserve Bank of India's response to these fundamental pressures.

While an IMF official advocated for letting the dollar-rupee exchange rate fluctuate as the primary defense, a former RBI deputy governor cautioned that exchange rates often overshoot and can introduce financial stability risks.