PODCAST: What’s at stake for Palestinian citizens in Israel’s election?

Israel's upcoming election, scheduled for next week, may alter its leadership but not its approach to Iran. Analysts and regional policymakers note that Iran will continue to be Israel's primary adversary, with military force remaining its favored tool. Palestinian statehood, however, is seen as a distant goal. The strategic assumptions behind Israel's policies were solidified following the Oct 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.

If the election results in a victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, supported by far-right coalition partners, there is a possibility that he could escalate the conflict with Iran, tighten Israel's control over the occupied West Bank, and prioritize diplomacy less. Israel's security doctrine revolves around three key principles: eradicating Iran, maintaining buffer zones beyond its borders, and employing force to deter adversaries.

The primary divergence lies in the degree of aggression Israel employs, the extent of settlement expansion, and the extent to which leaders pursue diplomacy. Experts predict that regardless of the election outcome, Israel's stance on Iran and other issues will likely remain unaltered, with potential shifts being stylistic rather than substantive.