Euro gives up early gains amid higher oil prices, French fiscal risks

The Euro (EUR) experienced a decline from its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, settling at approximately 1.1234 during European trade. Analysts at Danske Bank attributed the drop to a mix of rising energy prices and concerns over French fiscal risks. High oil prices, especially the WTI Oil price that climbed 2% to near $99.50, adversely affected the Euro since Europe heavily imports energy.

Investors are currently monitoring the upcoming flash Eurozone-US PMI data for October, scheduled for Friday, as both economies are projected to show moderate growth. The Euro and US Dollar will primarily be influenced by monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week, expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

Currently, EUR/USD trades at 1.1231, under the 20-day Exponential Moving Average of 1.1266, indicating a bearish bias. The pair is near the short-term EMA, meaning rallies are being sold, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 suggests weakening downside momentum. The 20-day EMA at 1.1266 serves as immediate resistance for bulls to reclaim, paving the way for a more sustained recovery.

With the Eurozone comprising 20 countries, the Euro is the second most heavily traded currency globally, accounting for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions in 2022. The Eurozone's reserve bank, the ECB, in Frankfurt, Germany, is responsible for setting interest rates and managing monetary policy, with the main objective of maintaining price stability.