Rupee to rise on Jio IPO inflows, RBI while oil risks cloud outlook

The Indian rupee is set to appreciate on Wednesday, buoyed by dollar inflows from the Jio Platforms IPO subscription process and the Reserve Bank of India's intervention, despite traders remaining cautious about oil price risks that could rekindle pressure on the currency. The rupee is forecast to open trading between 94.75-94.80 per dollar, up from its closing level of 94.9250 on Monday.

The markets were closed for a national holiday on Tuesday. Jio Platforms' initial public offering (IPO) begins accepting subscriptions on Wednesday, with institutional interest already exceeding 30 times the number of shares offered. The anchor portion of the IPO received bids surpassing 30 times the shares available. Foreign investors typically employ sell/buy swaps to handle their dollar inflows for IPO allocations; they sell dollars for rupees in the spot market and commit to repurchasing them later, usually within a week.

Upon receiving their IPO allocations, investors can execute these trades and sell the acquired dollars to fund their investments, potentially causing a surplus of dollars in the market.

In addition to the anticipated IPO-related inflows, the rupee may receive backing from ongoing dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India, which has been intervening around the 95 rupees per dollar level to bolster the currency. The Indian rupee has been on a seven-day winning streak. However, the currency is struggling to surpass the 94.70 level, a concern for traders.

Oil prices also pose a significant risk to the local currency. On Wednesday, oil prices surged due to Middle East supply concerns, particularly the potential threats to oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Brent crude futures climbed 1.5% to $110.34.